Rolf Johnson

Rolf Johnson - 06/09/2010

As Hayley Turner unsaddled Activate (only fifth and well away from away from the winner's circle) at Haydock in early August, I stuck my neck out and told syndicate members on the spot that he would win next time. When Michael Bell chose the fourteen furlong handicap back at Haydock last Saturday for Activate's next outing, I tossed my form book in the air in delight.

Post race I nearly tossed it in the fire.

The 'book' wasn't charitable about that first Haydock run - "there is a slight suspicion that he is not a straightforward ride"; and the handicapper dropped him a pound.

My reading of the race was that Activate had been running on well at the end of a race which had not played to his galloping strengths.

Last Saturday arrived and I lost my nerve (and friends) - and missed a money-making opportunity when Activate romped home at 8-1.

The Fred's Lucky Numbers Handicap was almost as hot as the season's hottest fourteen furlong handicap for three-year-olds, York's Melrose. Montparnasse, close-up fifth in that, came on to Haydock to finish third to Activate, establishing form which suggests our horse about the fastest improving young stayer around.

We can expect the handicapper to raise Activate as much as 9lb - and that may not stop him either.

My failure of confidence/faith/vision was, with hindsight, even more culpable since I had Activate running, on Saturday, to the rating I had for him back in May at Newbury when he divided Berling and Leger hope Arctic Cosmos.

That's not to say Activate should be in the Leger but he's going to be a handful for any staying handicapper for the rest of this season. And next season? A nice problem for Highclere to ponder.

There's no saying how far Activate can climb; let's hope the official handicapper doesn't go over the top.

Handicappers don't like being taken advantage of. Conservative fellows by nature they don't like surprises either. So, while it's a 'hen's teeth' occurrence that they get an earful for giving a horse too little weight, for doling out too much it's an all year round open season.

Highclere don't do sound bites so Harbinger's rating of 134 was accepted with the same equanimity as Activate's 78. After the weekend's events Harbinger's will also, surely, go through the roof.

Cape Blanco couldn't get any nearer to Harbinger's tail than eleven long lengths in the King George. And in Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes Cape Blanco's Group One winning rivals Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over could hardly get within six lengths of him!

Harbinger's new rating isn't a simple arithmetical calculation. Cape Blanco ran the race of his life in the Irish Champion though it shouldn't be forgotten that he finished over three lengths ahead of two Group One winners, Youmzain and Daryakana, in the King George.

Before winning the Irish Derby (Group One of course) he had defeated Derby winner Workforce in the Dante.

We are talking about very rarefied air here - form with no black holes. How British breeders are going to regret Harbinger's departure for Japan.

Rolf Johnson - 6th September 2010